TY - JOUR AU - Williams, Andrew AU - Thomson, Murray PY - 2023 DA - 2023/01/09 TI - Significance of Insulation and Heat Pumps in Decarbonising the UK JO - Journal of Energy and Power Technology SP - 003 VL - 05 IS - 01 AB - This paper examines the economic case for the UK to proceed urgently with the installation of thermal insulation and heat pumps in most UK buildings, in the context of the legal requirement to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. A recent study by the same authors assumed that such insulation and heat pumps would be in place, and showed how the whole of the UK’s energy demand could be met by low carbon electricity generation and appropriate storage. This paper extends the modelling to consider the risk that insulation is not widely installed, fossil gas boilers are retired (as they must be) but are replaced only by resistive heating, which is the pessimistic but likely outcome in the absence of heat pumps. Unsurprisingly, resistive heating and lack of insulation is shown to consume vastly more electricity: an increase of 608% for space heating and 52% overall. The contribution of this paper is in quantifying the seasonal variations and implications for generation and storage, which make the overall costs increase by an even greater proportion: almost doubling. In particular, peak electricity demand is 130% higher and required peak generation is 140% higher without extra insulation and heat pumps. The paper also illustrates the timely return on capital invested in insulation and heat pumps, primarily because they are cheaper than the additional wind turbines and energy storage required otherwise. The additional costs of failing to insulate and install heat pumps escalate to £63bn per year in levelised energy costs alone, and greatly increase the risk of the UK failing to reach net-zero. The financial break-even point for the costs of retrofitting the entire building stock is shown to be just 15 years from the start of a 28-year retrofitting campaign, with increasing cost savings thereafter. The paper shows that it is both necessary and cost effective to retrofit all buildings with proper insulation and heat pumps. SN - 2690-1692 UR - https://doi.org/10.21926/jept.2301003 DO - 10.21926/jept.2301003 ID - Williams2023 ER -