TY  - JOUR
AU  - Iresh, Attidiyage Don Shashika
AU  - Athapattu, Bandunee C.L.
AU  - Fernando, W.C.D. Kumari
AU  - Obeysekera, Jayantha T.B.
AU  - Rathnayake, Upaka
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/11
TI  - Regional Projections of Rainfall Extremes in Sri Lanka: Developing Future IDF Curves Under Climate Change
JO  - Advances in Environmental and Engineering Research
SP  - 031
VL  - 07
IS  - 03
AB  - This study developed future regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for Sri Lanka using climate change scenarios to address the growing need for adaptive infrastructure planning. Rainfall projections were generated with the CNRM-CM6-1 global climate model under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) for moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emissions. These projections were bias-corrected using a linear scaling method and analyzed across eleven hydro-meteorologically homogeneous regions. IDF curves were constructed for three future periods: near future (2025-2049), middle future (2050-2074), and far future (2075-2099). The results demonstrate significant spatial and temporal variability in rainfall intensity. Change factors were estimated for all regions to quantify deviations from historical baselines, identifying regions 5, 7, and 9 as particularly vulnerable to climate change under both SSPs. For SSP2-4.5, the overall change factor values are 1.73 for the near future, 1.65 for the middle future, and 1.335 for the far future, with an average of 1.57 across all periods. For SSP5-8.5, the values are 1.72 for the near future, 1.70 for the middle future, and 1.82 for the far future, resulting in an average of 1.74. The findings indicate a trend toward more extreme rainfall under both scenarios, with greater intensity and uncertainty under SSP5-8.5. These results underscore the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies, improved flood resilience, and the integration of climate projections into national infrastructure planning and disaster risk management.
SN  - 2766-6190
UR  - https://doi.org/10.21926/aeer.2603031
DO  - 10.21926/aeer.2603031
ID  - Iresh2026
ER  -