TY  - JOUR
AU  - ÖZKURT, İsmail Cem
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/17
TI  - Causal Relationship Between Climate Pressures and Agricultural Producer Prices in Türkiye; the Toda Yamamoto Approach
JO  - Advances in Environmental and Engineering Research
SP  - 026
VL  - 07
IS  - 03
AB  - Increases in greenhouse gas emissions, a key indicator of climate change, pose significant risks and uncertainties for the agricultural industry. From a theoretical supply-side perspective, greenhouse gas emissions may be associated with agricultural productivity losses and, consequently, with potential upward risks for producer prices. However, the Toda-Yamamoto framework used in this study tests predictive Granger causality rather than the magnitude or sign of a structural price effect. This study examines the predictive Granger-causality relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) and the agricultural producer price index (UFE), which represents the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors in Türkiye, using data for 1983 to 2024. The analysis first applies the standard Toda-Yamamoto and Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality tests without dummy variables. These tests are then re-estimated by incorporating structural-break dummy variables to assess the sensitivity of the findings to major break periods. The clearest statistical evidence of predictive causality was obtained from the standard Toda-Yamamoto test without dummy variables; however, this evidence should be interpreted with caution. The Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto result is only marginally significant at the 0.10 level, and the dummy-augmented specifications do not support a statistically significant causal relationship. This suggests that climate policies must not be viewed in isolation from agricultural and price stability policies. Concurrently, it highlights the significant role of measures designed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
SN  - 2766-6190
UR  - https://doi.org/10.21926/aeer.2603026
DO  - 10.21926/aeer.2603026
ID  - ÖZKURT2026
ER  -