TY  - JOUR
AU  - Othman, Muhammad Hanif
AU  - Sidek, Noor Zahirah Mohd
AU  - Shaharuddin, Sharifah Syakila Syed
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/03
TI  - Climate Variability, Carbon Emissions and Rice Yield in Malaysia: Evidence from an ARDL Approach
JO  - Advances in Environmental and Engineering Research
SP  - 023
VL  - 07
IS  - 03
AB  - Climate variability and environmental change have increasingly become critical challenges affecting agricultural sustainability and global food security. Rice yield is particularly sensitive to climate-related factors, including rainfall variability, temperature changes, and environmental pressure. In Malaysia, rice cultivation is central to national food security and rural livelihoods, yet it remains exposed to changing climatic and environmental conditions. This study examines the relationship between climate variability, environmental pressure, agricultural intensification, and rice productivity in Malaysia using annual time series data from 1980 to 2023. To avoid confounding climatic effects with changes in cultivated area, rice yield (output per hectare) is used as the dependent variable, and fertilizer consumption is included alongside rainfall, temperature, and carbon emissions as explanatory variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to investigate both short- and long-run dynamics, and the robustness of the long-run estimates is verified using the FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. The results indicate that carbon emissions exert a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on rice yield, a relationship best interpreted as reflecting the parallel influence of economic development, energy use, and agricultural modernisation rather than a direct agronomic benefit of CO2. Rainfall, temperature, and fertilizer consumption do not exhibit statistically significant long-run effects, while the error correction term is negative and significant, confirming a stable long-run relationship. The findings suggest that structural and technological factors are more influential than direct climatic conditions in shaping rice productivity in Malaysia, with important implications for agricultural modernisation, water management, balanced fertilizer use, and the integration of environmental sustainability into agricultural policy.
SN  - 2766-6190
UR  - https://doi.org/10.21926/aeer.2603023
DO  - 10.21926/aeer.2603023
ID  - Othman2026
ER  -