TY  - JOUR
AU  - Gupta, Rupesh Kumar
AU  - Tiwari, Yash Kumar
AU  - Gupta, Arpit
AU  - Yadav, Grinedge
AU  - Gupta, Swati
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/27
TI  - Assessing Land Use Dynamics and Thermal Stress in Ahmedabad Using Integrated Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques
JO  - Advances in Environmental and Engineering Research
SP  - 011
VL  - 07
IS  - 02
AB  - The rapid urbanisation in developing countries has not only intensified land transformation but also significantly altered surface temperatures, thereby increasing climate vulnerability. Ahmedabad, one of India’s fastest-growing cities, has witnessed substantial urban growth over the past two decades and therefore requires an integrated approach to analyse land-use change, thermal dynamics, and future growth patterns. This study aims to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, examine their association with land surface temperature (LST) and urban thermal stress, and simulate future LULC patterns for the year 2045. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 2000 and 2020 was used to map LULC using a Random Forest classifier implemented on the Google Earth Engine platform, achieving an overall classification accuracy of approximately 89-93%. Urban thermal conditions were assessed using MODIS-derived LST data, and thermal stress was evaluated using the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI). The results indicate that built-up areas expanded from approximately 161 km2 in 2000 to 223 km2 in 2020, primarily due to the conversion of barren land, vegetation, and agricultural areas. LST patterns revealed a significant intensification of high-temperature zones, particularly in densely built-up and industrial regions. The UTFVI analysis shows that more than 60% of the city experiences moderate to high thermal stress, while areas with higher vegetation cover and water bodies consistently exhibit lower thermal stress. Future simulations suggest that built-up areas may exceed 300 km2 by 2045, further intensifying urban heat stress if current land-use trends continue. The integrated LULC-LST-UTFVI framework highlights the critical role of land-use planning in developing climate-responsive urban strategies and mitigating thermal stress in rapidly expanding cities.
SN  - 2766-6190
UR  - https://doi.org/10.21926/aeer.2602011
DO  - 10.21926/aeer.2602011
ID  - Gupta2026
ER  -